Zimbabwe’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.5% in 2027 as an anticipated El Niño-related drought hits agricultural production, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

The IMF, however, expects the economy to grow by 5% in 2026, with growth recovering in 2028.

The Fund said the drought poses a key downside risk, particularly if it is more severe than expected or government mitigation measures are delayed.

The warning comes as climate forecasts point to below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells across Zimbabwe during the 2026/27 season.

The IMF has approved the completion of Zimbabwe’s second review under its 10-month staff-monitored programme, saying implementation through June was strong.

It said inflation remained low, with annual ZiG inflation at 3.7% in September, while strong mineral exports, remittances and revenue collection supported economic stability.

However, the IMF flagged shortfalls in protected social and priority spending and urged stronger budget execution, fiscal discipline and preparations for weather-related shocks